Applying Bayes’s Theorem*

Our curriculum is supposed to include formal training in evidence-based medicine. I think we discuss these methods a lot, but we don’t have a whole module on it the way some large residencies do; there is an evidence-based medicine tag over on the right side of the web page.

Above is a snappy eight minute video on how Bayes’s theorem informs, or rather should inform, our use of diagnostic tests. This is from Dr. Aaron Carroll over at The Incidental Economist, a great blog on health care policy (and other stuff, obviously).

Also, I wanted to acknowledge the trickle of people subscribing to the blog; it seems we’re gathering a small following. Feel free to email me suggestions for topics or ways to make the blog better, especially for residents.

* Wait, isn’t it Bayes’ theorem? Not according to Strunk and White:

Form the possessive singular of nouns by adding ‘s. Follow this rule whatever the final consonant . . . Exceptions are the possessives of ancient proper names ending in -es and -is, the possessive Jesus’ . . .

(Emphasis added). I have a lot of respect for Bayes, but Jesus he wasn’t, and I don’t think that a lifespan of 1701-1761 even qualifies as ancient . . .

About Justin A. Sattin

I'm a vascular neurologist and residency program director. I created this blog in order to share some thoughts with my resident and other colleagues, and to foster my own learning as well.
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